I have some observations about the current coronavirus pandemic on a scientific level, but as I am neither virologist nor epidemiologist, I should probably keep quiet.
But I do feel that I can address a related phenomenon, the empty or nearly empty supermarket shelves that I noted in my last post.
The empty shelves are generally attributed to hoarding; it is my theory that the hoarding is largely governed by a positive feedback relationship. The hoarding begins with those who think that the pandemic will lead to complete societal collapse, at which point food and other consumer goods will be completely unavailable, and those with the somewhat less extreme belief that the pandemic will necessitate social isolation strict enough that people will be unable to go out to purchase consumer goods.
This first wave of hoarders empties out various sections of the store, which creates an illusion of scarcity—the impression that there are long-term shortages. More people then decided to hoard when they get the opportunity in order to secure themselves against these perceived shortages. Supermarket shelves are again cleared out, which perpetuates the illusion of scarcity, prompting even more people to hoard.
The population is, of course, finite, and the capacity to acquire and store goods is also finite, so even if everyone is eventually moved to hoard, the hoarding urge should at some point be sated. Are we reaching that point? Paper products are the category hardest hit by hoarding, and on my last supermarket visit there were some paper items in the paper aisle—no paper towels or toilet paper, but a few packages of tissues and paper napkins. Perhaps the end is in sight.
Anyway, that’s my theory. As theories go, well, it’s a theory. And I like being able to use the phrases “positive feedback relationship” and “perpetuates the illusion of scarcity”.
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